The Other Mommy box office outlook is strong for this weekend, according to Deadline, which projects the Jessica Chastain horror film to open at No. 1 with around $20 million from 3,200 sites. The Blumhouse and Atomic Monster release, directed by Rob Savage, arrives with no mega-tentpole competition on the calendar.

Studios have kept this early October frame to smaller, demo-focused films as the NFL and MLB playoffs compete for audiences. Deadline notes that horror usually holds up in the run-up to Halloween, and the film has premium large format screens working in its favor. No Rotten Tomatoes critics score has posted yet.

Why is Other Mommy favored to win the weekend?

Chastain has a strong domestic record in the genre, especially with director Andy Muschietti. Mama opened to $28.4 million domestically in 2013 and finished at $71.6 million stateside. Its follow-up, It Chapter Two in 2019, debuted with $91 million in North America and finished at $211.6 million domestic.

The campaign began July 17 with the first in-theater trailer, which played ahead of The Odyssey. The online trailer was timed to the one-sheet reveal and ran as the pre-roll before Obsession’s debut on Peacock, reaching 242 million global views.

Chastain’s character faces a spiritual doppelgänger that Deadline describes as freaky and arguably sinister. The double causes havoc with her 8-year-old daughter and a marriage that is already on the rocks.

Showtimes start at 2 p.m. Thursday in North America. Deadline says the best first-choice audiences are women under 25 and men over 25, with both groups running ahead of The End of Oak Street, which is projected to open to $21 million. Overseas, a limited bow starts in Mexico, the UK and Australia, with France, the Netherlands, Korea and Japan following later.

The Social Reckoning faces a softer start

Aaron Sorkin has been asked on press tours about a sequel to his Oscar-winning The Social Network since he moved into directing. He has now made one. The Social Reckoning stars Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg, who faces a crisis when whistleblower Haugen, played by Mikey Madison, leaks internal documents to a Wall Street Journal reporter played by Jeremy Allen White.

Critics are so-so on it at 64% fresh, well below the 96% certified fresh score The Social Network earned. Deadline projects a mid-single-digit opening at 2,200 theaters, perhaps around $8 million, and points to Tom Cruise’s Digger, which it calls a flop, as a comparison.

The budget works in its favor. The net production cost sits between $30 million and $42 million before global prints and advertising, and Alcon finances half of it. Deadline notes that Digger had no co-financier and cost significantly more.

Previews start at 4 p.m. Thursday. Guys over 25 are the top first-choice audience, similar to Jeremy Allen White’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, which opened to $8.8 million last year. Overseas, the film has a 92% footprint and a projected $6 million opening abroad, with hopes for strong word of mouth in Europe.

The timing is tough. Neon’s Luca Guadagnino film Artificial premiered at the New York Film Festival, drew strong early reviews and opens on Christmas Day. It stars Andrew Garfield as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and Deadline says critics are hailing it as a follow-up in spirit to The Social Network.

Other openers include Angel Studios’ western Angel and the Badman, starring Tommy Lee Jones, at 2,000 theaters. Pan’s Labyrinth returns for its 20th anniversary via Fathom at 1,008 sites and has earned $37.6 million domestically. Verity, in its second weekend, is expected to fall at least 60% to around $12 million and has $37.9 million through Tuesday.

Deadline’s figures are projections, so actual results will show how close the forecasts land and whether horror keeps its lead.

Quick answers

How much is Other Mommy expected to earn this weekend?
Deadline projects Other Mommy to open at No. 1 with around $20 million from 3,200 sites.

How much is The Social Reckoning expected to open for?
Deadline projects a mid-single-digit opening at 2,200 theaters, perhaps around $8 million.

Source: Deadline